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Rates Continue to climb-TNOTE yield now above 4.15%-Mortgage rates -Wednesday 7-23-08
July 23rd, 2008 3:03 PM

I played it safer today and delayed my post until the afternoon to allow for the day to "heat" up before making any observations. There is again no real big economic news to sway the market, so OIL is once again the catalyst for the market sentiment. More "better than expected" earnings results add to the overall tone. Energy Sector is dragging the overall picture down, but the market is still in the "GREEN" at this time.

Take caution if you are floating a rate right now. Rates will continue to ride the "earnings train" over the next couple weeks.

And with bond weakness continuing, the afternoon or morning may bring another increase in mortgage rates.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK-ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL BEFORE LOCKING YOUR LOAN

 

Posted by James Bowen on July 23rd, 2008 3:03 PMPost a Comment (0)

Earnings results again will set today's market tone-Mortgage Rates for Tuesday 7-22-08
July 22nd, 2008 9:04 AM

Today is light on economic news releases, but ripe with earnings reports and they don't look good. After surprisingly good news from other major commercial banks, WACHOVIA ANNOUNCED IT IS LEAVING THE WHOLESALE (BROKER) ORIGINATION ARENA. Sentiment in the market turned negative in late afternoon trading yesterday and that mood will carry into this morning and possibly the afternoon as well. Wachovia's terrible earnings missed predictions by a big mark and American Express also released lower than expected figures. Apple and Texas Instruments also disappointed analysts and suggests that lower consumer spending is now being seen in the electronics/tech sector.

After reaching 4.12% in the late morning yesterday, yield on the 10 yr TNOTE closed just under 4.07% and had retreated this morning pre-market to near 4.01%. I am thinking that this trend will continue through the morning and with it should come a late morning rate cut to get the PAR rate on a fixed 30 yr term back near 6% again---right now it is hovering around 6.25%-6.375% give or take a few discount Basis Points.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK, ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL BEFORE LOCKING YOUR LOAN RATE


Posted by James Bowen on July 22nd, 2008 9:04 AMPost a Comment (0)

Lots of News this week to affect rates-mortgage rates Monday 7-21-08
July 21st, 2008 10:11 AM

Rates climbed through the day on Friday and may level slightly this morning as Bonds gained a bit back at close. I would suspect, however, that this increase trend may not be over. Tnote yield is beginning the day around 4.087%, but more positive financial sector news may bring that level up this morning. Note that yield is up over .15% over the past 2 business days.

B of A showed a reduction in profit, BUT the results beat predictions. The whole week will be jammed with S&P and DOW member earnings releases. Hasbro has already given better results and today will also bring Apple, Merck and Texas Instr. numbers. The one factor that may temper the positive mood is that oil is back above $130 after it's record downturn.

There are a bunch of "economic reports" due out this week. Tomorrow brings the June leading Economic Indicator measurement. Anything higher than the tiny increase predicted will be detrimental to bonds and rates. The middle of the week brings less "rate" significant results on economic activity and the Housing Market, but there really shouldn't be any big surprises in these reports, so they won't have a big impact.

Look to Friday for the next potential for real fluctuations, as June's durable goods report and the University of Mich. final revision on the index of Consumer Sentiment are back in play.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONWIUDE MORTGAGE CO. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL BEFORE TAKING RATE ACTION


Posted by James Bowen on July 21st, 2008 10:11 AMPost a Comment (0)

Rates are up over the past 2 days
July 18th, 2008 8:31 AM

There isn't really much in store today for market news, but news already out this AM should cause mixed optimism in the market today. Another huge loss posted by Citicorp (but less than predicted) is going to lift the financial sector investing today, but other earnings reported by Microsoft, Google and Merrill Lynch missed targets. Oil, which was down over $15 in the past 3 days, has started back upwards.

BONDS are down pretty significantly after the big rally in the past 2 days. Rates are up as a result by .375-.500 ( of a discount point) in this time period. TNOTE yield is now over the 4.00% benchmark and opens the day near 4.038%. I would expect another small increase as a result of late Thursday weakness and then we will have to see if CITI's news keeps the rally going for Financials.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK-ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR OWN TRANSACTION

 


Posted by James Bowen on July 18th, 2008 8:31 AMPost a Comment (0)

Financials again boost market sending Bond interest down
July 17th, 2008 10:43 AM

For the second consecutive day, Better than expected LOSSES have given the early market optimism that the Financial sector can weather the credit loss environment. The sector as a whole is up almost 7% with JP Morgan leading the way. Earnings from Nokia and Continental (again LOSSES but not as high as predicted) are helping the morning tone along.

It is still early to think that this sentiment will hold at the current level, but a couple of other positives may help. Housing starts were better than expected and unemployment claims for last week were down from analyst predictions. However, a new manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Fed shows weaker than expected figures. Oil had been down in pre-market and very early trading but is now up from last nights low.

While it's great to see the boost to the market, it is always tough to watch rates increase as a consequence. The TNOTE YIELD is edging upward now close to 3.97%. I've already seen a rate adjustment upward this morning by about an 1/8 of a discount point. But, let's really look at this in the right light. Rates are still EXTREMELY LOW despite what's happening around us. The FED won't likely adjust the BANK RATE at their next meeting for rate adjustments so mortgage rates will be highly dependant on where the market trends. In any event, unless bonds really tank during this period of uncertainty, daily ups and downs really won't affect rates much in the overall scheme of things. It is still a GREAT TIME TO BUY OR REFINANCE.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL IN REGARDS TO YOUR OWN PERSONAL FINANCING


Posted by James Bowen on July 17th, 2008 10:43 AMPost a Comment (0)

A little good news went a long way today-bad news for afternoon rates
July 16th, 2008 6:59 PM
It's amazing that a little good news in the Financial sector, and increased oil reserves driving oil rices down had the dramatic effect that it did for the Stock market today. The market was up huge with financials leading the way. Wells Fargo had less of loss than expected and the Fed Chair made comments that Freddie and Fannie were fundamentally sound...this helped all financials across the board, but drove bonds down and the TNOTE Yield up a full tenth of a point to close at 3.93%. Remember it closed at 3.82 last night so that's a big swing up. There were a couple rate changes brought to my attention today and I would expect further increases in the morning based on current weakness.

Posted by James Bowen on July 16th, 2008 6:59 PMPost a Comment (0)

Positives in Financial Sector drives Stocks higher-Bonds will suffer as TNote yield rises
July 16th, 2008 11:27 AM

After the lowest level on TNOTE Yield in some time (3.82%), Positive news in the financial sector and news that OIL has retreated back down to $132/BRL after its' record run up has lifted the market into positive territory and consequently TNOTE yield is trending upward and now sits at roughly 3.92%. Bonds will begin to reflect this trend, and while rates will hold steady in the morning, look for increases late afternoon.

There is lots in play today and it will take all day for investors to sort it all out.While Wells Fargo and Charles Schwab reported better than expected results this morning, the June CPI index rose much higher than expected as did the core numbers. This still shows inflationary concerns, and Fed Chair Bernanke did nothing this morning in his day 2 speech to assure investors that he is optimistic. This leads folks to assume that there is no chance for further BANK rate reductions come August.

We'll have to see where the market heads today--watch the TNOTE yield. (REMEMBER THE MAGIC 4% BENCHMARK)

THIS IS MY OPOINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK-ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL BEFORE LOCKING YOUR RATES


Posted by James Bowen on July 16th, 2008 11:27 AMPost a Comment (0)

DOW under 11,000 and falling........rates will fall too
July 15th, 2008 10:30 AM

Fear in Future Financial Failures (wow-too much alliteration there). These 4 F's have set today's market tone....And, investors are awaiting comments from the Big Boys today--Fed Chairman, Treas. Secretary and even the President. All will give their strategies on how the Bailout and future regulations will affect and redefine the financial sector in regards to mortgage financing.

Additional economic news released today will likely keep the BOND rally going today. June's producer Price Index showed a higher than expected overall wholesale price increase and Junes's retail sales report revealed a smaller than predicted increase in sales. Along with those reports, the NY Fed says that manufacturing in NY State has again declined-3rd consecutive month.

But as we all know by now that when BONDS rally and the TNOTE yield drops, MORTGAGE RATES WILL DROP TOO. SO TODAY MAY GOOD DAY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF LOWER RATES. Yield is now near 3.82%, down from late yesterday.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK-ALWAYS CONSULT WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL BEFORE LOCKING YOUR RATE

 


Posted by James Bowen on July 15th, 2008 10:30 AMPost a Comment (0)

Premarket/early rally gone-Market reality again sets in
July 14th, 2008 1:28 PM

The morning rally in the stock market is now gone as reality sets back in with an analyst predicting more Bank failures in the wake of IndyMac being taken over by the FDIC. Oh, and OIL is back near $145 after an early retreat. So, it is again these 2 sectors that continue to plague market sentiment as a whole. If you remove these sectors from the mix, the market would be in the green still.

Bonds, however, are the recipients of market woes as they have now rallied off Friday's lows as the TNOTE yield is down back 3.90%

Tuesday brings 2 economic reports which could send rates up or down depending on reported results. June's Producer Price Index and Retail sales reports will be out and we'll have to see what happens.

 


Posted by James Bowen on July 14th, 2008 1:28 PMPost a Comment (0)

Buckle up for what could be a wild ride this week-Rates for Monday 7-14-08
July 14th, 2008 9:32 AM

Expect some rate uncertainty this week as the Financial sector is still reeling from Fannie and Freddie and the newest Major Mortgage player to go under-IndyMac Bank. The market is reacting positively in pre market trading to the news that the Fed and the Treasury Dept will lend to Fannie and Freddie who hold 1/2 of all US mortgages. This is not good for BONDS which are expected to continue to fall, maintaining Fridays weakness. The TNOTE yield begins the day trending back upward toward the 4.00% benchmark. I would expect rates to increase by at least .25% of a basis point today.

This is a big earnings week including giants like Intel, Microsoft, Coca-Cola and we will finally get to see just how bad off Citigroup's numbers are after the second quarter.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK-ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL AS YOUR TRANSACTION IS UNIQUE TO YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES.

 


Posted by James Bowen on July 14th, 2008 9:32 AMPost a Comment (0)

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