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The DOW is up this morning after reports that the current oil supply inventory is higher than was expected has driven oil prices down almost back to $132.00/barrel. It became evident with the supply increase that American's have indeed reduced consumption as prices have been rising. Oil investors await the FED decision on what to do with interest rates and where the longer term economy is seen as headed.

Consequently, bonds fell as the 10 yr T Yield rose back toward 4.16%. (remember it was just a few weeks ago I was talking about 4.00% as the "break" point. It appears that this current level is sustainable, so rates won't likely see large downward swings).

We'll have to see what the FED says later to determine if rates will head higher based on bond weakness or if bonds react positively to the news being released.

FINANCIALS DOWN AGAIN, AUTO MAKERS BEING HIT HARD THIS MORNING, OIL HITS NEW RECORD HIGH OVER $143/BARREL................

This is becoming a recurrent theme in the Stock Market lately. Once again there is big concern that losses will continue to mount and price increases will soon be passed on to the consumers in all commodity sectors. Iran threatens Israel and and a key passageway to the Persian Gulf which has added to the already chaotic atmosphere in the Middle East.

Bonds are showing added strength from last Friday to this morning as the yield on the 10 year note has dropped below the magic 4% mark at 3.97%.

This may translate to slightly lower rates, as there isn't much in store today to move the market....so once again, it is financials and oil that rule the rates for the day.

Remember that this is a short week as Friday is the 4th. More news will come this week that could have a play in rates, so it may be wise to float rates in the short term....

THIS IS MY OPINION AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK-AS ALWAYS, CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL BEFORE DECIDING TO LOCK YOUR RATE-ALL TRANSACTIONS NEED INDIVIDUAL ADVICE

Better than expected results on personal income and spending did not overshadow the new record that oil reached this morning. Economic stimulus payments pushed after tax income and consumer spending to the highest level since the mid 70's. But, economists are concerned that as soon as these checks are spent, we'll be worse off than we are now. Personal savings are at highest since 1990's , but with increases to all commodities, can consumers maintain this level or will it literally be "eaten" up with food costs. Corn and soybean costs are now at all time highs. Oil reached another high near $142. What will this all mean for the latter part of the year?

Financials continued their string of bad news. B of A states that it will be cutting 7500 jobs after the Countrywide deal is complete. Merrill Lynch says it will lose near 5.4 BILLION in 2nd Q write downs and AIG says it is looking at a 5 BILLION loss....yes, BILLION!!!

But as irony has it, a market blood bath equates to bond strength and TNOTE yield weakness....Bonds have continued to gain as a result of late Thursday strength and this mornings news. 10 YR Yield has dipped back to 4% (there is that magic benchmark again-4%).

I would anticipate a moderate drop in rates today as there is no further economic news to shift markets away from oil and financial woes.

THIS IS MY OPINION AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL BEFORE LOCKING YOUR RATES

Yesterday's decision not to cut the bank interest rates set a clear indication to investors that the Fed Res no longer has concerns about recession, but has shifted it's worry and focus on inflation. They pretty much made it known that there won't be any rate cuts coming up and have hinted that if oil continues upward and the financial sector continues to show weakness, they may begin to hike BANK interest rates at some point in the early part of 09 (some analysts have hinted this may happen in the Fall, but probably not)

The DOW and all indices are down big today after OIL prices jumped based on comments from the OPEC president. Citi has been downgraded to sell after further indication of write-downs. GM is reporting income warnings, and the Technology sector showed problems with a couple of the major Tech players.

For the Mortgage Consumer, however, this is good short term news. Bonds are up as the T-Bill yield lowered below 4.10%. I would expect that rates will adjust slightly downward as investors leave stocks for bonds this afternoon. It is still a good time to lock in to avoid the roller coaster we have been on over the past few weeks.

THIS IS MY OPINION AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONWIDE MORTGAGE CO OR EAGLE NATIONAL BANK-ALL CONSUMERS SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL FOR INDIVIDUAL LOAN ADVICE

Pre-market concerns from UPS after they issued a "warning statement" regarding expected profit were heightened after the release of the Consumer Confidence report for June...it showed the lowest level since 1992. On top of this, oil has not dropped as hoped for and this is continuing to worry investors as this keeps long term inflation fears high.

This is all leading up to the conclusion tomorrow of the Fed Res meeting on interest rates.

Bonds were the beneficiary of the market sell off as the yield on the 10 YR note dropped back to approximately 4.10%. I have seen at least 2 rate changes downward today..roughly 1/8-1/4 of a discount point. We could see another if bonds continue to gain strength this afternoon.

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Thanks for your continued support!!

This morning's stock market is mixed but is showing small gains. There isn't really very much going on that is making any market impact today. The weekend OPEC meeting really didn't produce the results that many analysts were hoping for, and oil rose a bit back to the mid $136 range. Bonds however held steady as a result of late strength Friday.

If stocks stay in the positive area today, Bond strength may decline in the afternoon. I don't expect any real rate movement today.

Here's a brief look at the news week ahead: Tuesday--June Consumer Confidence Index is released; Wednesday-May's durable goods report out along with the Post report on the close of the 2 day Fed. Open Market Meeting; Thursday-Final 1st Quarter report on Gross Domestic Product; Friday-May Personal Income and Spending report.

With all this data for investors to digest this week, the most important day for rates may be Wednesday.

AS ALWAYS, CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL FOR YOUR OWN PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES

More sour news from Financials and anticipation over what will happen during the weekend meeting of oil producers has the stock market ready to show a lower open. Can a solution be found to the current oil pricing problem?

As for Financials, Washington Mutual came out late Thursday with a layoff announcement adding to all the recent bad news. Expect more announcements from the Financial Sector in the upcoming days and weeks.

But, as we have seen time and time again, bad news on stocks generally = good news for Mortgage Rates. There could be a morning drop in rates if late Thursday bond weakness is overcome by the pre-market drop in the 10 yr T-Note yield back to 4.19%.

Well, my early prediction that there may be interim rate changes actually happened. After a slight AM improvement to rates, the afternoon has reversed the morning reduction and we are seeing PAR rates on the 30 year conventional loan at 6.25% and on the 15 yr, 5.875%.  Markets were mixed all day with news from the Philadelphia Fed that manufacturing showed a drop in demand and an increase in commodity pricing. Bonds fell as the 10 year T Bill inched up to 4.22%

China reported that they were lifting a cap on oil prices which drove the price per barrel down $5.00. This has eased demand concerns as the Chinese people are expected to react to the increase by lessened consumption. This good news was offset by news that the CITI CEO is once again warning that there will be more writeoffs expected with this market mess.

So we keep seeing these rates going up and down...but, believe it or not, they are right where they were 1 yr ago....so even with all the market problems, rates are still attractive at near 6% PAR.

Stocks had a pre-market rally somewhat after yesterday's huge loss and have opened mixed but just higher. Jobless reports showed last weeks claims dropped but less than expected. The May average showed the largest one month increase in unemployment since the 80's. Crude oil has shown a slight decrease helping to keep stocks mostly up as the market opens.

Bonds were down ahead of the market open and have continued that trend, as the yield on the 10 yr T-Note is back at near 4.18% after dropping late yesterday afternoon to 4.14%. I would anticipate that the rate drop we saw yesterday afternoon ( there were actually a few interim rate changes yesterday) will be wiped out by the Bond drop and rates may increase slightly this AM.

Today's Leading Economic Indicator report for May will be the market shaker for today. We'll have to wait to see where rates go from there. It could be another day where we see interim daily rate changes

Rates are down slightly from yesterday this morning by about 1/8 of a discount point. 30 yr rates are now back down to 6.25% PAR and 15 yr are right around 5.875% PAR.

Todays stock market is the reason for the lower mortgage rates. Fed Ex has warned that profits will be significantly lower than expected. Financials are still showing weakness with Morgan Stanley and Fifth Third Bank in the news today. Oil is back up after spending most of late yesterday and early pre-trade hours down.

All Treasuries are down slightly and Bonds are up a bit.....Oil and financials are the market movers for today..keep an eye on them for further rate adjustments later in day.

The afternoon has produced a rate drop near .250%. This is primarily due to bond strength (up about 5/8)as the PPI released today was higher than expected, but the increase was concentrated on food and energy sectors...the core remained within expectations so this is a signal that inflation may not be as "imminent on the horizon" as investors have been fearing but with energy so unpredictable, there is still longer term concerns which keep bonds in check along stocks.

The Industrial production results were also released and showed a larger than expected decline in manufacturing output. The stock market has reacted negatively to this along with the further decline in new home starts reported in May. The yield on the 10 yr T-note came back down a bit thus the mortgage rate reduction for the day.

Tomorrow is pretty quiet and Thursday will bring the report on may's Leading economic indicators which predict the next 6 months of economic activity. Bond prices would benefit from falling levels, but most analysts predict consistent levels so don't expect any real changes.

It is still most analysts opinions ( which I share) to lock rates , especially in the short term.

THIS IS AN OPINION AND EACH TRANSACTION IS DIFFERENT-PLEASE ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL FOR YOUR INDIVIDUAL LOAN

Today's rates appear to be starting just under where they ended on Friday. 30 Year conventional rates are between 6.25-6.375% and 15 yr rates are roughly 5.875-6.00%. Today's Stock Market has begun the day in the RED as OIL pushed back towards $140/Barrel. The first of those REGIONAL manufacturing reports came out this morning  and results from the NY FED RES. showed continued weakness. This may send the signal that this will be the trend across the country.

Treasury prices advanced slightly as the yield on the 10 year t-note dropped back modestly from it's high on Friday of 4.26% Yield.

Tuesday is set to be a market watch day as 3 reports are coming out. The 2 with the most potential impact to the market, bonds, and mortgage rates are May's PRODUCER Price Index (as opposed the Consumer Price Index) A large increase in this data could show that higher prices will be passed on to the consumer. This could cause a sell off in bonds and spikes to Mortgage Rates. The other important data piece is May's Industrial Industrial production report.If production is perceived as rising, bonds will drop and rates will move higher. A decline in production will continue to signal weakness and would potentially push rates lower.

Thursday will highlight the release of the May Leading Economic Indicator stats, but they are expected to show no surprises and won't likely affect rates much.

So, tomorrow may be the day to watch. I would still have to consider this atmosphere to be ever changing, so it most likely wise to continue locking short term loans.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND YOU SHOULD ALWAYS SEEK ADVICE ON YOUR TRANSACTION BEFORE ACTING

Just got new pricing sheets (2nd of the day)--it would appear that as the market has maintained most of it's day's gains, that rates have jumped a bit to the 6.25-6.325% range for 30 yr fixed and 5.875-6.00% for 15 yr terms. The markets are remaining up as investors are looking less nervous about inflation concerns. Bonds are up as a result of the SHORT TERM TREASURY YIELDS DROPPING, however, the 10 yr T Note Yield has inched up again to near 4.23%.

Next Tuesday brings a report on WHOLESALE NOT RETAIL inflation. This will help determine if businesses have begun to pass on increased costs. Oil is still very shaky and caution still exists that Financials and the overall economy have seen the worst, so expect market uneasiness and volatility to continue.

It may now be wise to lock in the short term ( next 2 weeks) at least.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND YOU SHOULD SEEK THE ADVICE OF YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL BEFORE YOU ACT ON LOCKING YOUR LOAN-INDIVIDUAL SCENARIOS REQUIRE INDIVIDUAL ADVICE

As always I welcome an opportunity to speak with any of you out there who are looking for the best rate and product.

CALL ME TODAY.

JAMES BOWEN

315-398-9400

www.getmortgagenow.com

Stocks are up fairly big today as most analysts are predicting that based on all the latest economic news the Federal Reserve will most likely keep rates where they are in order to combat long term inflation concerns.

Factors influencing todays market and Bond rates include:Core inflation measures met expectations when excluding food and energy prices. Consumer Price Index showed an increase of .6% but core inflation was much lower at only .2%. This signals investors to believe that spending won't be hurt as much by oil and gas prices as was originally perceived. Oil prices dropped again. Bonds were down early as a result of this positive economic news, but have rallied a bit to show slightly higher. This is because the T Note Yield has dipped slightly. This afternoon brings additional economic news, so the market may not keep it's gains. At this point, it is not clear where rates will go. A market rally generally suggests higher rates, but we are not seeing that action yet.

Stay tuned

Well, I thought that rates would start today lower based on the late rally in the Bond market yesterday afternoon. But, much better than expected May Retail sales (best in 6 mos, best in a year if you exclude autos and gasoline sales) helped the stocks to rally this morning which eliminated bond interest from last evening,driving rates up at least 1/4 of a discount point. It could have been a much higher jump if the bond strength didn't exist prior to today's news.

Oil prices fell sharply adding to the market gains and Wall St has reacted positively to Lehman Bros ousting 2 of the TOP execs due to recent losses. This has raised the yield on the 10 year note to 4.16% and yes, bonds are down sharply.

The ride will continue with more economic news today and tomorrow, so depending on results , the market will react and so will Bonds. Keep your eyes on both.

And the roller coaster ride continues.....the price of crude oil continues to rise at will as reports that inventories being down have caused more inflation concerns. However, gasoline and heating oil supplies are up and demand is down....but, this is not having the expected reduction in gas prices at the pump as new records were set. Resultingly, the dollar is down against all other currencies and the market has reacted in a negative way as the thought of the Feds RAISING the Bank rates becomes more apparent.

Bonds are back up today (for now) and the yield on the 10 year t-note dropped back to 4.04% from Tuesdays high at 4.11% The market is awaiting the Feds BEIGE book regional economy reports this afternoon. We'll have to see where rates go from there after that release. Expect this mornings rates to be lower by around 1/4 basis pt after last night's bond weakness is overcome by today's strength.

Good news again for Mortgage Professionals as Mortgage application volume increased over 10% after last weeks dismal drop in volume. This is interesting as rates have been on the rise.

Keep your eyes on the market the rest of the week. More up's and down's are assured.

Expect the par rate on a 30 year term to be very near 6.25% at day's end. And I wouldn't expect any improvement tomorrow morning. 15 year rates are at 6% now, so every day makes a difference based on the Stock Market. This morning oil was up again and stocks were mixed . Oil is now showing to be back down and some good earning reports from companies such as Coca Cola has kept stocks mixed but slightly up. Bonds are down as investors are reacting to comments from our Fed Res Chairman that a major economic downturn is not likely which has begun to raise expectations that the FED may opt to RAISE BANK rates to fight inflation. Bonds fell this morning and further this afternoon, with the 10 YR T-NOTE yield now at 4.10%

I would expect that this bond weakness will continue to affect rates through tomorrow morning at least.

As always, check with your mortgage professional for locking advice on your deal. If you need some help, call me anytime...I'll gladly review your situation.

This mornings rates are back up a bit from where they ended Friday. After the DOW lost 400 points during the day, rates did go down, but this morning brings us a key piece of economic news that was not predicted by any analysts. Sales of pre-owned homes rose very unexpectedly to the highest level in 6 months. (Personally I believe this to be a tribute to all Mortgage Professionals) The other market shaper this morning was a slight retreat in OIL. So as a result, bonds are back down, the yield on the 10 yr note is back up near 4.00 after ending Friday down. Rates are roughly at 6% PAR this morning.

This whole week , in particular Wednesday to Friday ,will feature various reports that will  continue to move rates up and down. Wednesday brings details on the US economy by region,Thursday will show May retail sales results and Friday is highlighted by the  release on May's Consumer Price index.

All of these are considered important market movers and in turn will result in Bond variances and Treasury note yield changes. And yes, rate changes as well. There have been a few surprising pieces of data lately so it is still a good idea to lock short term rates, as each day will show movement. But, as always , check with your professional as this is only an opinion.

The market had a big surprise today as Monthly jobless rates jumped much higher than expected---the largest monthly increase since 1986. The other influencer today is that OIL is back up again, jumping $6 /barrel in 2 days....this is due primarily to a report that the newest prediction on price of oil by 7/4 Holiday is 150/Brl.

There seems to be a new oil prediction every day , so you can see how much these "predictions' affect the market. Bonds are way up as investors are now looking at Bonds as safer long term investments. Soooo, when bonds are up.....and the yield on the 10 yr T-note is down....what does it mean?   Lower mortgage rates...and today's cut may be enough to recover yesterday's increases.

Yesterday's mixed stock market has transformed into positive territory today based on less than expected unemployment claims for the week. Overall the 4 week average is still the highest in the past 4-5 years. If tomorrows Employment data shows that the unemployment rate is above expectations, bonds will rally ....however, anything lower will continue the Stock rally and keep bonds down. Other good news from retailers such as WalMart helped bolster today's market gains.

Bonds down this morning coupled with yesterday's activity will push rates higher by .375-.500 by day's end. The 10 yr Yield on the T-Note is now at 4.02 which is up from 3.98% late yesterday

Well, rates did start the day a bit better--30 year are in the 5.75%-5.875% range and 5.375%-5.55 on 15 year terms. FHA are slightly better only on the 15 year term.

This is probably going to one of those days where rates will change mid day as the market has now gained strength based on a larger than expected increase in worker productivity, unit labor costs down and growth in the service sector(even though small, does show no further retraction) Bonds are slightly lower as the yield on 10 yr t-notes rose a bit to 3.90%

So, we may see rates go back to where they were yesterday morning....up about 1/8 of a point.

There was huge decline in the Stock Market yesterday that has been cut back a bit this morning. Afternoon news of GM closing plants as sales were down over 30% in May and Ford also showing a plunge in sales sent stocks down. Later news that unemployment results showed job increases in the Private sector and oil again coming back down as demand over the last 4 weeks has decreased by 6% from last year, helped ease the loss.

The first few hours the market is open today will help determine which way Mortgage rates will go. Chances are that based on where the 10 year Bond (3.89%) is starting the day and where stocks left off, rates may improve slightly. Keep your eyes on the market.

Rates have reverted upwards slightly this morning, making the 30 yr fixed somewhere between 5.87%-6.00% PAR with the 15 yr between 5.5% and 5.625%--(closer to the top ends) . So we're back on the upswing as a result of the Stock markets very small gains. Comments from Fed Chair stated that he believes the 2nd half of the year to be "somewhat better". But, he still says that there will most likely be no more Bank Int rate cuts as there is still an uneasiness about short term inflation. Cuts may do more harm than good.

Several factors played a part in the market gains we are seeing now, but more problems from the financial sector has kept the better than expected news (from factory orders (excluding transportation), finished goods and non-durable goods rising, and oil prices showing signs of a possible cap ) from allowing investors to take hold of the good news and run with it.

So, gains are mostly small but, as we know, generally Stocks up means Bonds down and rates up. And, the other component in rate watching is that 10 year note which is back above the 4.00% mark at 4.01%--again a downward signal for Bonds.

But, again rates are going to adjust all week long, so locking may be wise.. my opinion only...your transaction deserves individual advice.

Bonds ended much higher at day's end as the Stock Market suffered a huge loss. Some of the data released today probably would have had much less of an impact, but bad news again in the Financial arena shot stocks downward. Earlier I had mentioned that there may a rate change at some point during the day, and there was ---rates reacted to the terrible stock market results as Bonds rose and the 10 YEAR T-Note, dropped again and is now back under 4.00% at 3.97%. 30 year fixed rates finished the day at roughly 5.875 while 15 year rates crept down to 5.5%. Remember these are PAR rates, where no points are paid to the Lender. Are there lower rates available? Yes, but as long as these PAR rates stay below 6%, I see no reason to "buy-down" your rate (of course it may make a difference on a JUMBO possibly)

There are more possible catalysts for uncertain rate direction coming up this week as economic data continues to be reported.  I would still recommend a short term lock.

(PLEASE REMEMBER THAT THIS IS ONLY AN OPINION AND YOU SHOULD ALWAYS LOOK AT YOUR INDIVIDUAL TRANSACTION)

Rates are again pretty much flat from Friday this morning. However, based on two reports released today, Bonds are now up and the 10 YR. Note went backwards to 4.04%, much lower than it's high just a few days ago of 4.10%.

May's Manufacturing Index showed the 4th straight monthly decline and Construction spending dipped again in May for the 6th time out of last 7 months. This news along with news that Wachovia CEO has been forced out, once again highlights the Big bank problems and overshadows news such as oil dropping back to the $126 range. The DOW is currently down big........

So, I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the daily interim rates changes for the better.......this week may full of them.

As such, all opinions I am researching still suggest LOCKING as the rates are going to still be on the roller coaster ride they have been lately.