I see another up and down week for rates.Todays MORNING rates will continue to benefit from Fridays strong bond market. However, we will need to await results on Personal income and spending later in the AM to see if they will hold.
Today brings a report on consumers ability to spend and if incomes increased or decreased. Larger than expected spending results will not be good for rates.
Tomorrow brings news from the FOMC regarding INFLATION CONSENSUS. There is always more fluctuation based on the sentiments reported post committee meeting. If the indication is that inflation is still a looming concern in the Fed's eyes, it may trigger a bond sell off. If the Fed believes that inflation is waning, bonds will become a "safe haven".
There are 2 Treasury Auctions this week. 10 YR NOTES on Wednesday and 30 YR NOTES on Thursday. There could be some pre-auction bond weakness each day and then they should adjust based on success of sales.
Employee productivity will be looked at on Friday and unless much higher than expected increases are shown, this in itself won't affect rates much. Keep an eye on earnings and oil throughout the week as those variables will go hand in hand with the weeks economic reports to shape what should be an active week for rate swings.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR OWN TRANSACTION
Today's news about July Income and Spending is out and the results suggest that the impact of the BIG STIMULUS package is drying up. Incomes fell by the most in almost 3 years and while spending was up, it was because of higher prices not more purchases. But, really who didn't see this coming after the Spring numbers. I don't think any of us thought that those numbers would continue. Numbers can be manipulated to show what ever is in need of being highlighted at the time. So when economic math wizards added all those checks into peoples incomes as a one time boost to reporting, it stands to reason that after those checks have come and gone that the numbers would look more reflective of reality. The question now is how does the market react to this news today and in the weeks to come.
Oil is driving up again after a drawback yesterday. Prices had been over 120/bl but dropped back under 116/bl last eve and now as GUSTAV comes closer and it's path more defined, there is an increase today.
The good news is that today is expected to show weak volume due to early close and HOLIDAY upcoming. Bond action will be light and early indications show some moderate bond improvement in early trading. Yesterday showed TNOTE yield movement up and down, but at the end of the day, it closed pretty much where it opened. Look to see if drops below 3.75% as that may trigger slightly better mortgage rates, if not today, then after the Holiday weekend.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONWIDE MORTGAGE CO. OR EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR TRANSACTION
For the second straight day good market news has led to renewed stock confidence. 2nd quarter GDP was revised upward significantly which has created some positive momentum this morning. Investors are however cautiously optimistic as this figure was buoyed by 2 huge factors-the low value of the US dollar prompting huge foreign exports and the TAX rebates hitting the economy all at once.
Jobless claims were down again for the week, but remained above the benchmark number which still signifies the effects of an overall slowing economy. But, still a bright piece of news none the less. Oil has risen higher again, now above $120/bl, but this isn't having a dramatic effect as cause is known and is viewed as short term adjustment based on GUSTAV coming to call in the Gulf Region.
After bucking the afternoon market increase and not trending higher yesterday, 10 yr tnote yield has begun to "yield" to this good market news. Investors are seeing better short term stock return opportunities and backing off longer term Government Notes. Check this through the day to see how far yield rises. That may determine where rates go today.The trend is likely to continue as the market prepares for the upcoming HOLIDAY.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONWIDE MTG. CO. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR OWN TRANSACTION
The new report out on durable goods is good news for the market today. This report signals some recovery on purchases of big tickets such as appliances and auto's. Good news both for manufacturers and also for perceived consumer sentiment.
News later will focus on OIL and GAS inventories and that along with continued fears that GUSTAV may disrupt Gulf supplies is appearing to temper any big rally. Keep an eye out through the morning to see if that changes.
Bonds are weakening as a result of this "good' news and also concerns about the 2 upcoming Treasury auctions. There is huge supply right now of 2yr and 5 yr notes and this may be reflected in sale results. The 10 YR NOTE yield is now ranging at 3.83%, up from yesterday's close at 3.78%. This reflects a degree of profit taking over the past 2 days as traders leave bonds. I would expect mortgage rates to increase as well this morning.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR TRANSACTION
Today's market investors are trying to digest several factors in the market today. Sales of new homes in the US was lower than expected, but when looking at Junes revised numbers, sales were up and overall inventories down to the lowest levels in almost 4 years. Prices also rose slightly but are still down over 6% from last year. Imbedded in the report is good news from the NE sector where sales actually rose from last year--the only region in the US to do so. Other very big news today is that Consumer Confidence is up more than expected. So, why isn't the market reacting to all this good news? Well, there is still hesitation in the lead up to the release of the last Fed Res Meeting minutes. Also keeping todays investors on the fence is uncertainty whether oil supply will be threatened by the new Gulf Storm approaching. Oil was up $2/bl as the storm approaches virtually on the same path as FAY did.
The 10 yr TNOTE was flat at open, but has inched up a bit now around 3.81% after closing at 3.79% last eve. Rates may be increased SLIGHTLY this morning, but may react more noticeably after the minutes are released. If the minutes suggest that inflation concerns are lessening investors may come off the fence and the market may react in a more positive direction. We'll have to see later.
The market is not extending it's huge Friday rally into this next week. Even though the report on existing home sales showed a more than double expectation in number of units sold, this is deceiving due to the number of "discount sales" which are occurring, especially in the hardest hit market areas. Financials are again adjusting downwards after Friday's rally with news that AIG (Mortgage Insurer) may be downgraded. Oil is also back up a bit after last week's huge drop.
Mortgage rates should be the beneficiary of this Monday decline as investors are backing away from stocks and into bond havens. Tnote yield has dropped significantly from Friday's close of 3.867%, now trending near 3.78%. I have seen downward rate adjustments today, and if BONDS continue to strengthen, we see another small decrease this afternoon.
Stocks are enjoying another Friday rally. While the Fed Reserve Chair recognizes that there is still much uncertainty regarding inflation long term, he is optimistic about recent dollar strength and lower commodity pricing (really Oil). He again stressed that the Fed Open Market Committee will do all in its power to ensure some kind of pricing stability but GLOBAL commodity action remains uncertain, so uneasiness still exists. But as Markets tend to do, they are are reacting positively to perceived good news with financials benefiting in a large way. The speech also reiterated the fact that Fannie/Freddie won't fail which boosted interest in financials again. At least for today.
Helping "Fed Speech Friday" along is OILS retreat back to the 118/bl range based on the $'s strength. It had been on a 2 day run up towards $122/bl range.
So, once again we see good news in the market having a negative reaction on bonds and increasing TNOTE yield now around 3.87-3.88% range after yesterdays close up to 3.84% range. Rates have already increased a bit this morning, so keep an eye out for how high yield gets today in this rally.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MTG PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR TRANSACTION
I know I've been stating this alot lately, BUT, Oil and Financials are setting the early tone to the market. Oil has risen back over $119/BL due to the Russian turmoil and possible supply problems. This added to the barrage of recent downgrades in the Financial sector is not sitting well with stock investors today. Key indicators are pointing towards weaker than predicted consumer ability to spend. The one good piece of news today is that weekly unemployment rates were down for the 2nd week in a row, BUT 4 week average still higher. We've seen the 10 TNOTE yield trend lower over the past few days. That has helped rates. I am seeing early bond weakness and the TNOTE yield going back upward, now near 3.84%, up from last eve's close at 3.80%. Morning rates reflected the closing strength, but if the yield continues it's ascent, there will be an adjustment by early afternoon.
The market at first looked like it would start with positive sentiment as HP reported good numbers which showed not all sectors hurting from the consumer pessimism existing today. That sentiment was quickly dampened as OIL continues it's recent advance and financials continue to degrade, increasing inflation concerns. 3 large players all had their 3rd quarter earnings estimates lowered and a government bailout of Fannie/Freddie appears more imminent.
So far BONDS have reacted positively to the market losses but it is yet to be seen if the strength will continue or if FINANCIALS will sway investors from seeking the "shelter" of BONDS. 10 YR TNOTE yield is dropping and is now at 3.80% range after closing at 3.84%.
Rates may benefit from the mornings NOTE activity. There won't really be any economic news to take things off track, so the day will play out with news already out there. Let's see how investors "digest" it!
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REARDING YOUR OWN TRANSACTION.
Don't look at the market today. It is not a pretty sight. Lot's of bad news has hit the wires and it is having a double whammy. Stocks are down and BONDS are weakening. Producer Price Index report showed an increase that was DOUBLE PREDICTIONS. And when you take the food and energy segment out of this , CORE was also way up. Also out was the report on new construction, which while units were higher, still lowest since '92. There were also many weak earnings reports out from retail and wholesale stores, and when financial news is brought into play, concerns over longer term inflation become prevalent in the marketplace. One factor that may help temper losses (but not significantly) is the fact that oil is down a bit as STORM fears ease.
Bond YIELD is up and down, but again, if longer term inflation worries gain momentum we may see an upswing, but it shouldn't be significant. Rates may also follow this trend, so keep an eye out.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR TRANSACTIONS.
After spending much of the pre-market trading below $114/brl, oil is beginning to rise in the lead up to the market open. As TS FAY heads for Florida, worries increased about supply disruption. But, at the same time Russia is backing out of Georgia easing tensions there and OPEC released data suggesting lower global demand in 2009. I'm not sure how many of my posts include the sentence, KEEP YOUR EYE ON OIL, but today is no different.
I expect to see a somewhat higher market open, but it will be mixed. The afternoon will bring us the monthly report on housing, but there should not be any big surprises. 10 YR TNOTE yield ended Friday at 3.85% range after opening at 3.86%. Dollar dipped slightly this AM so we'll see where factor that plus oil takes the yield after market opens. I think that the rates will hold steady most of the day as there is no real data to suggest otherwise.
Stock market is currently up but has retreated somewhat from an earlier high. Oil has fallen again as demand again shows to be down, this time reflective of more than just US cutback. However, consumer sentiment out of U of Michigan report shows a smaller rise than predicted. Retail sales reports from JC Penney and Abercrombie & Fitch were less than expected, but did report gains. Other news out today includes the report on Industrial output which showed a slight rise. The US dollar is up against the POUND and manufacturing in NY State showed a rise in early August.
BONDS are bucking the market trend as 10 YR TNOTE yield has dropped again and is now in a range not seen for 2 months. If BOND strength continues , we should see rate decreases to correspond with lower yield. But, if a FRIDAY rally in stocks takes hold, this trend may cease and yield will begin a rise.
So far, so good for morning/early afternoon rate decrease.
BONDS are up a bit this morning after TNOTE YIELD closed in the 3.94% range yesterday afternoon. Yesterday morning showed a predicted small rate decrease, but as the day went on , YIELD rebounded and rates were back up. At the time of this post, BONDS are rallying with NOTE yield at 3.90%--back to where it was yesterday morning.
The market is now in green territory which is a result of investors looking for good buys into financials which have tanked in the past 3 days. Many factors will play into market sentiment this morning- Primarily the huge jump in consumer prices. Levels now are highest in close to 2 decades. A distressing factor within this report is that CORE pricing (when you take out food and energy) was up more than expected. To top it off, jobless claims were down LESS than expected.
Things aren't all doom and gloom. Wallmart posted good figures and oil has gone done a bit after early session highs. Sudden inventory drops caused initial concern, but facts behind it helped ease fears of shortage. Americans are continuing to drive less miles as reports show reduced driving for the 8th straight month. This is good news to the market because it suggests that there won't be a big upward swing as long as WE drive less and demand remains in check.
I would anticipate that mortgage rates will reflect the TNOTE trend and MAY SHOW SLIGHT improvement this morning. But, it will depend on if the CURRENT trading into financials continues. If that happens, bond interest will wane and yield WILL SWING AGAIN.
After a Government report on July retail sales hit the news along with a slight increase in OIL, the market is off to a weak start with the Dow down moderately. This comes a day after financials took a big hit and it appears that weak sector will remain negative today. With sales the lowest since February and gas prices playing a huge factor in that , investors are concerned that gas prices are not coming down as quickly as the oil drop and that sentiment passes to other arenas such as retailers like Macy's who also reported lower sales and earnings than expected and John Deere who reported a 7% increase in sales, not due to US sales, but rather GLOBAL sales aided by the weak US dollar.
BUYERS,HOMEOWNERS LOOKING TO REFINANCE.....take advantage of the weak stock market and strengthening BOND market as the TNOTE is now trending near the 3.89% YIELD range. Rates should reflect this BOND rally later this morning.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR OWN TRANSACTION.
Oil is still below $115/BL but is up again this morning as BP shut down it's supply pipeline in the Georgia/Russia area causing supply concerns. JP Morgan says it has already lost 1.5 billion in the 3rd quarter and is way up over FULL 2nd quarter totals. Even though this figure is much smaller than other major players, this news combined with UBS figures reported today renewed concern that the mortgage crisis continues to plague the financial sector and leads to speculation just how deep the crisis is.
Some good news out this morning is that the US trade deficit fell big in June and is due in part to the weakness of the US dollar allowing for less costly exports. This appears to be tempering the overall market from higher losses. We'll see if the this sentiment continues or if we see larger losses through the day.
I see rates improving as there has been a significant drop in TNOTE yield. After yesterday's run up over the 4% benchmark, Yield has dropped back to the 3.94% range which will most likely drop rates by the same .250% discount point that they increased by yesterday.
Crude Oil prices are again rising, partly due to huge loss of almost $5/bl on Friday, and partly because of the current problems between Georgia Republic and Russia. There is an area withing the region in dispute that is key to oil distribution.
There really isn't any economic news to hit the market today, so market will react primarily to the OIL Pricing (but, GASOLINE prices down again) and many mixed earnings reports. Financials are down as analysts have re-rated Fannie today to negative in terms of standalone liquidity. Not that this was any big surprise.
So, after a huge MARKET week, it appears that stocks will be flat to moderatley lower today and will reflect earnings and OIL sentiment. TNOTE yield was down this premarket but has now trended near 3.97%, or almost 2 tenths higher than Friday's close. Morning rates should not be affected due to Friday strength in bonds, but any more sizeable losses in market and bonds will bring a slight increase later on.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK,ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR TRANSACTION.
After Freddie's news yesterday, Fannie also came out with horrible loss figures which were well over estimates predicted. On top of that, a weaker report on worker productivity came out, but it was mitigated by slightly lower than expected unit cost increases.
Another drop in oil is the area of market hope today to offset these reports. Oil has retreated back to the $116 range and the energy sector is showing weakness today as inventories are up. With these market gains, the TNOTE yield has begun to inch up from yesterdays close of 3.935% which was a full tenth of a point lower than the previous day. If the end of week rally based on OIL continues, rates may swing upwards slightly to end the week.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK-ALWAYS CHECK WEITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR INDIVIDUAL TRANSACTION
Lots of disappointing news hit the Market this morning. As a result, the DOW is down significantly. Some of the key factors today: Wallmart July sales miss estimates; Oil moving back up ($120); jobless claims up last week and 4 week average highest in 5 years;AIG had a HUGE 2nd quarter loss as MORTGAGE loss claims WERE much higher than predicted; financials will lose today because of these new reports.
BUT----the TNOTE yield reached 4.09% level yesterday afternoon before closing at just under 4.05%. It is now trending much lower at 4.01%.(remember 4% benchmark) If bonds continue to improve, a portion of yesterday's rate hike should be erased. The only thing that may halt a bond rally would be a better than expected revised report on JUNE pending home sales that also was just released. YIELD had been under 4% until the report data hit the market. So, we'll have to see where market sentiment heads later in the morning.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR TRANSACTION.
After a huge stock rally yesterday, the Market will need to digest Freddie Mac's 3 times larger than expected loss last quarter. This seems to be the big news today. Oil has inched up in advance of a supply report due out this morning. Communications sector may show improvement today as Time Warner, Sprint,Quest all posted LOSSES, but better than expected.
Bonds did not move very much yesterday even with the large market increase. TNOTE yield broke past the 4% benchmark to 4.02%, but early morning bonds have gained and yield is wavering between 4% and 4.02% pre-market.
There was a slight increase in rates yesterday afternoon, but they should hold steady going into the morning. We'll have to see how investors react to FREDDIE. There is also an auction today of 10 YR TNOTES today that may shift focus this afternoon.
THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL IN REGARDS TO YOUR TRANSACTION
Yesterday's moderate market loss could have been more severe if not for the continuing fall of crude prices and also gasoline. Bonds had been enjoying a rally of sorts as the yield on the 10 yr note dropped sharply through the morning. But, with the drop in OIL, came a market rebound and yield began it's ascent back to where it began the day. Pre-market numbers show TNOTE yield slightly down from Monday's close. This may quickly change as the market looks a few reports today. A report on the service sector will be out in the morning and the Fed's meeting on rates will be in the afternoon. There are no big surprises expected, but it doesn't take much these days to trigger bigger than expected swings. We may see a slight increase in rates if no major news comes into play today.
The stock market suffered another moderate loss today as the jobless rate hit it's highest level since 2004.To top that off,GM posted it's 3rd largest quarterly loss EVER. Iranian relations are straining again with talks of nuclear capabilities and this has sent crude oil back up slightly. The good news is that US supplies are very high as demand is weak and gas prices have dropped a penny or two since yesterday. (HOPE IT GETS TO MY AREA SOON-I'M STILL PAYING 4.15/ GAL.)
Bond strength grew throughout the day as the 10 YR note yield dropped back to 3.948% Rates improved somewhere by 1/8 to 1/4 discount point . This will carry into Monday morning at least until the release of the Personal Income and Outlays report due out then. This report may play a factor, but most likely not much by itself. So, keep a watch on other earnings reports as well.
It is in my opinion a good time to lock rates in the short term.
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